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Tropical Storm DARBY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36

2016-07-20 16:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 201433 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 1 37(38) 25(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 145W 50 X 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 19(40) 1(41) X(41) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 26(36) 3(39) X(39) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 7(27) X(27) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 15(28) 3(31) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 4(24) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Summary for Tropical Storm DARBY (EP5/EP052016)

2016-07-20 16:33:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DARBY WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT HEADS FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 the center of DARBY was located near 19.9, -139.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm DARBY Public Advisory Number 36

2016-07-20 16:33:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 201432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 ...DARBY WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT HEADS FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 139.8W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 139.8 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Darby. Future information on Darby can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 AM HST under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3, WMO header WTPA33 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm DARBY Forecast Advisory Number 36

2016-07-20 16:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 201431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 139.8W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 139.8W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 139.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.7N 141.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.4N 144.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 146.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.8N 148.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.0N 152.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 153.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.0N 155.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 139.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DARBY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON DARBY CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP3...WMO HEADER WTPA23 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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