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Hurricane DARBY Graphics
2016-07-19 05:08:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2016 02:33:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2016 03:04:38 GMT
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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 30
2016-07-19 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190231 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 Darby still appears as a well-organized tropical cyclone on geostationary imagery, with a symmetric CDO and occasional eye showing up on enhanced infrared imagery. Microwave imagery, however, shows that the system has a slight northward tilt with height with the mid-level center located a few tenths of a degree north of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB still support hurricane strength, so the official intensity estimate remains at 65 kt. Darby will be moving over marginal SSTs and into drier air with increasing shear during the next several days. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken during the forecast period. The official forecast is a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM model output through 72 hours and is a little above that guidance at days 4 and 5. Based on the microwave images, the center is positioned slightly south of the fixes from GOES imagery, and the resulting motion estimate is 280/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning is about the same as in the previous advisory. Darby should continue on a generally westward heading to the south of a zonally-oriented mid-level subtropical ridge for the next couple of days. Later in the period, the cyclone should slow its forward speed as it nears a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast lies roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 19.1N 133.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 19.6N 134.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 20.0N 136.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 20.1N 139.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 19.9N 141.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 19.0N 150.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 20.0N 152.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane DARBY (EP5/EP052016)
2016-07-19 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DARBY STILL A HURRICANE BUT LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 18 the center of DARBY was located near 19.1, -133.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane DARBY Public Advisory Number 30
2016-07-19 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 ...DARBY STILL A HURRICANE BUT LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 133.2W ABOUT 1525 MI...2450 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 133.2 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Darby is likely to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane DARBY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2016-07-19 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190231 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 0300 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 4(29) X(29) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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