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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 39A
2017-08-30 07:42:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300542 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 39A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 100 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 ...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA STILL BEING DELUGED WITH HEAVY RAINS... ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NEAR BEAUMONT AND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 93.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Holly Beach to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Bolivar to west of Holly Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Freeport Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 12 to 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 93.5 West. Harvey is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north- northeastward motion is expected later this morning, and this general motion should continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is expected to move inland over the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area later this morning. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before the center crosses the coast, but gradual weakening should begin thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A wind gust to 51 mph (82 km/h) was recently measured by a National Ocean Service station at Sabine Pass North, Texas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches to the north and east of Houston from far east Texas into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals will reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern Louisiana into coastal Mississippi and Alabama. Rainfall associated with Harvey will spread northward by mid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches spreading into portions of Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Holly Beach to Morgan City...2 to 4 ft San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach incl. Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft Morgan City to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist through today. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southeast Arkansas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Harvey Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2017-08-30 05:31:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 03:31:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-08-30 05:15:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 03:15:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-30 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 02:58:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 03:23:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 39
2017-08-30 04:54:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300254 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Latest radar imagery shows that heavy rainfall continues over far eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Outer bands are also producing heavy rain farther east along portions of the northern Gulf coast. However, rains have begun to diminish over the Greater Houston area, where some locations have received more than 50 inches during this historic event. Harvey took an eastward jog this evening, but recent satellite images suggest that a northeastward motion has resumed. The storm is expected to move north-northeastward to northeastward between a ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a trough over the east-central United States. This motion should bring the center onshore over southwestern Louisiana early Wednesday, and into the Tennessee Valley region later this week. The global models show the system becoming an open trough near the Ohio Valley or Appalachians in 4 to 5 days. The latest NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward partially due to the more eastward initial position. There has been little overall change to Harvey's convective structure since the previous advisory, and the initial intensity remains 45 kt, which was supported by the earlier aircraft data. Little change in strength is anticipate before Harvey reaches the Louisiana coast. After that time, gradual weakening should occur while Harvey moves farther inland. The latest forecast required an extension of the tropical storm warning eastward to Grand Isle, Louisiana. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are expected to the north and east of Houston from far east Texas into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat has spread farther east, and additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southern Louisiana into coastal Mississippi and Alabama. These rains will spread north by mid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches in portions of Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 29.0N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 29.8N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0000Z 31.1N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1200Z 32.5N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/0000Z 34.3N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/0000Z 36.8N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 03/0000Z 39.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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