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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-29 22:43:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 20:43:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 21:23:03 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 38
2017-08-29 22:40:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 292040 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Heavy rains continue to spread over southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana, exacerbating what is already a catastrophic flood event. Rainfall totals are around 50 inches at some isolated locations in the Greater Houston area and southeastern Texas. Convection blossomed a couple of hours ago, and the center jumped a little northward into the thunderstorm activity. Since that time, the center is back on track and is moving slower again toward the north-northeast at about 5 kt. Recent data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that winds are about 45 kt, with a minimum pressure of around 994 mb. The SFMR on the plane reported some higher wind values but the plane was flying in shallow waters and these numbers appear inflated. Flight-level winds in the same area were much lower. Strong shear prevails over the cyclone, so no significant change in intensity is anticipated before the broad center of circulation makes landfall. A gradual weakening is forecast once the system moves inland. Harvey has been steered north-northeastward by a light southwesterly flow between a high in the Gulf of Mexico and a trough over the central United States. This flow pattern should keep Harvey on the same general track and speed with a gradual turn to the northeast in about 3 days. By then the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low and then become absorbed by an extratropical low. Most of the guidance is consistent with this solution, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat has spread farther east, and additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southern Louisiana into coastal Mississippi and Alabama. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 29.2N 94.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 30.1N 93.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 31.5N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0600Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1800Z 34.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1800Z 36.5N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 02/1800Z 37.5N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2017-08-29 22:40:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 292040 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 9 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MORGAN CITY LA 34 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 16 17(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) LAFAYETTE LA 34 27 5(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) NEW IBERIA LA 34 24 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) FORT POLK LA 34 31 15(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) FORT POLK LA 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 77 4(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) LAKE CHARLES 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JASPER TX 34 28 5(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) KOUNTZE TX 34 43 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) HOUSTON TX 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 950W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-29 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST DUMPING CATASTROPHIC RAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 the center of Harvey was located near 29.2, -94.3 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 38
2017-08-29 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 292039 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 ...HARVEY CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST DUMPING CATASTROPHIC RAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 94.3W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Holly Beach to Morgan City Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Holly Beach to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Bolivar to west of Holly Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Port O'Connor to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Morgan City to Grand Isle Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 12 to 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was estimated from data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 94.3 West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. On the forecast track, the broad circulation center of Harvey is expected to move inland over the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before the center crosses the coast, but gradual weakening should begin thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. Galveston recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph and a gust to 54 mph. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches to the north and east of Houston from far east Texas into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals will reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern Louisiana into coastal Mississippi and Alabama. Rainfall associated with Harvey will spread north by mid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches spreading into portions of Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley. A preliminary report from a rain gauge has broken the Texas tropical cyclone rainfall record. The Cedar Bayou gauge, east of Highlands, Texas, has reported 51.88 inches of rain as of 3 PM CDT. This total is higher than the previous record of 48 inches set during tropical cyclone Amelia of 1978 at Medina, Texas. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Holly Beach to Morgan City...2 to 4 ft San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist during the next day or so. Tropical storms conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 24 hours. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today from extreme southeast Texas across parts of southern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi and coastal Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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