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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-29 11:08:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 09:08:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 09:25:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 36
2017-08-29 11:00:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290900 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Heavy rains continue to spread over the Houston area and other locations in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana, exacerbating what is already a catastrophic flood event. Rainfall totals exceeding 40 inches have been observed at several locations in the Greater Houston area and southeastern Texas. Storm totals could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for the area. The center of Harvey is moving slowly over the waters of the extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and there continues to be essentially no deep convection near that center. The current intensity is estimated to still be 40 kt based on surface observations from buoys and land stations. Given the lack of central convection and strong south-southwesterly shear over the system, significant restrengthening is not anticipated before the center crosses the coast again within 36 hours or so. Gradual weakening will occur after landfall. Harvey has turned from an east-southeastward to an eastward heading and the initial motion is now about 100/3 kt. The storm should turn northeastward to north-northeastward over the next couple of days as a ridge to the northwest of the system weakens and Harvey is steered around the western side of a ridge to the east. Some further eastward adjustments to the official track forecast were made, following the latest model consensus forecasts. However, it is important not to focus on the exact forecast track since the main threat from Harvey, heavy rain and flooding, can and will occur well removed from the track of the center. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 7 to 13 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat has spread farther east into Louisiana. Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches are expected in south-central Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi and Alabama. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 28.1N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 28.3N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 28.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 29.9N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0600Z 31.1N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z 33.7N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/0600Z 36.0N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0600Z 37.5N 83.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2017-08-29 10:59:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 290859 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) STENNIS MS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) BURAS LA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 1(19) X(19) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 3( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 910W 34 5 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BATON ROUGE LA 34 3 6( 9) 12(21) 8(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 4 9(13) 11(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 5( 7) 17(24) 14(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 6 12(18) 20(38) 7(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 6 14(20) 19(39) 6(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) FORT POLK LA 34 4 6(10) 23(33) 8(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAKE CHARLES 34 13 19(32) 21(53) 4(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMERON LA 34 31 23(54) 13(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) CAMERON LA 50 X 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JASPER TX 34 4 7(11) 17(28) 5(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 10 12(22) 14(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 22 17(39) 13(52) 2(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 10 6(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) AUSTIN TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 63 19(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) GFMX 280N 950W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MATAGORDA TX 34 15 3(18) 2(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) PORT O CONNOR 34 8 1( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ROCKPORT TX 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Harvey Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-08-29 10:59:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 08:59:25 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-29 10:59:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY IS EXPECTED TO WORSEN THE FLOOD SITUATION IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 the center of Harvey was located near 28.1, -94.8 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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