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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2017-08-28 22:47:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 282047 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 6(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 4( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 12(20) 8(28) X(28) 1(29) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 3 6( 9) 9(18) 8(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 7(10) 8(18) 8(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 930W 34 33 16(49) 6(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 3 5( 8) 7(15) 14(29) 6(35) X(35) 1(36) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAKE CHARLES 34 11 14(25) 13(38) 10(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 25 16(41) 11(52) 7(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JASPER TX 34 4 7(11) 7(18) 13(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 33 7(40) 7(47) 6(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 46 8(54) 6(60) 5(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GALVESTON TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 85 3(88) 1(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) FREEPORT TX 50 5 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 950W 50 8 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 950W 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 48 11(59) 2(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) MATAGORDA TX 50 3 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 52 4(56) 1(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) PORT O CONNOR 50 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 16 4(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 270N 960W 34 38 4(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MCALLEN TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-28 22:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT HARVEY HAS 45 MPH WINDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 the center of Harvey was located near 28.5, -95.7 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 34
2017-08-28 22:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 282046 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT HARVEY HAS 45 MPH WINDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 95.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended east of Cameron, Louisiana, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Port Bolivar, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mesquite Bay to Intracoastal City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Bolivar to Morgan City Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern Texas. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the middle and upper Texas coast and in southern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of Harvey. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 95.7 West. Harvey is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slow motion toward the southeast is expected through tonight. A gradual turn toward the northeast and a continued slow forward speed are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is expected to be just offshore of the middle and upper coasts of Texas through Tuesday night, then move inland over the northwestern Gulf coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The National Ocean Service automated station at the Matagorda Bay entrance recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 57 mph (92 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations along the Texas coast is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches through Thursday over parts of the upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large portions of southeastern Texas. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south into the middle Texas coast and farther east across south-central Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southeast Louisiana. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in rain bands well to the east of the center of Harvey, and along the coast to the southwest of the center. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist within the warning area during the next couple of days. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Tuesday across southern Louisiana and extreme southeast Texas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 34
2017-08-28 22:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 282044 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MESQUITE BAY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT BOLIVAR TO MORGAN CITY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 95.7W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 95.7W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 95.9W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 28.4N 95.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.6N 95.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.2N 94.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.3N 94.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.5N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 37.0N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 95.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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5 Trending Headlines: Animal activists, Harvey flooding & when to assist a calving cow
2017-08-28 22:11:36| Beef
Animal rights activists have made it clear: they are out to put an end to animal agriculture. That and more awaits you in this weeks Trending Headlines.
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