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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 31
2017-08-28 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280234 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 The unprecedented flooding rainfall event continues to unfold over much of southeastern Texas. Harvey has been moving slowly east- southeastward during the past few hours, and heavy rainbands continue to form over the northwestern Gulf and train inland over much of the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Storm total rainfall amounts in the 20-27 inch range have been observed across much of the Greater Houston area, and additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected over the next several days. Rainfall totals could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for that area. There haven't been any observations of sustained 34-kt winds over land for the past few hours, but the initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the assumption that higher winds are occuring over water, likely in rainbands. The track guidance continues to show Harvey moving just offshore of the Texas coast on Monday, then turning northward and moving inland over northeastern Texas in 48 to 72 hours. All of the global models show some slight deepening of the system after it moves over water, but given the lack of an inner core, significant strengthening is not anticipated. The new NHC track and intensity forecasts are similar to those from the previous advisory. Although the tropical storm warning has been expanded, and may need to be extended eastward along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts tomorrow morning, heavy rainfall and life- threatening flooding continue to be the primary threats. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana. Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in southwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches expected in south-central Louisiana. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 28.8N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 28/1200Z 28.6N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 29/0000Z 28.3N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 29/1200Z 28.4N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/0000Z 28.8N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 31/0000Z 30.5N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/0000Z 32.3N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0000Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-28 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 the center of Harvey was located near 28.8, -96.6 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 31
2017-08-28 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 280233 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 96.6W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF VICTORIA TEXAS ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended from Port O'Connor southward to Mesquite Bay and from Sargent northeastward to High Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mesquite Bay to High Island Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern Texas, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of this area. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of Harvey. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located inland near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 96.6 West. Harvey is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this slow east-southeastward to southeastward motion is expected to continue through Monday. A slow northeastward motion is expected to begin on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is forecast to move off the middle Texas coast on Monday and meander just offshore through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight restrengthening is possible after the center moves off the coast late Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily over water to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/ Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of southeastern Texas. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south into the middle Texas coast, farther west toward the Texas Hill Country, and farther east across south- central Louisiana. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the center of Harvey and in portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist in areas of onshore winds within the warning area during the next couple of days. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the upper Texas coast and into far southwest Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2017-08-28 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 280233 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) 1(14) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 1(13) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 1(17) 1(18) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 2(16) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 3(18) 1(19) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) 3(23) X(23) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 11(24) 2(26) 1(27) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 14(19) 4(23) 1(24) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 15(28) 2(30) 1(31) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 12(30) 2(32) 1(33) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 19 14(33) 10(43) 5(48) 5(53) 1(54) X(54) GALVESTON TX 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) FREEPORT TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 11 30(41) 9(50) 5(55) 4(59) X(59) X(59) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 5 7(12) 12(24) 7(31) 9(40) 2(42) X(42) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 3 5( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MATAGORDA TX 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 2 5( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 14 8(22) 6(28) 3(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) ROCKPORT TX 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 12(13) 7(20) 3(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 31
2017-08-28 04:32:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 280232 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM PORT O'CONNOR SOUTHWARD TO MESQUITE BAY AND FROM SARGENT NORTHEASTWARD TO HIGH ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MESQUITE BAY TO HIGH ISLAND CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 96.6W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 96.6W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 96.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.6N 96.4W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.3N 96.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.4N 95.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.8N 95.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 30.5N 94.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 32.3N 93.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 34.0N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 96.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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