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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

2017-08-27 16:55:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 271455 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 1(14) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 2(15) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 9(12) 5(17) 2(19) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 10(14) 4(18) X(18) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 1 9(10) 5(15) 5(20) 9(29) 3(32) 1(33) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 25 6(31) 2(33) 2(35) 5(40) 2(42) 2(44) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) AUSTIN TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) FREEPORT TX 34 17 16(33) 7(40) 2(42) 6(48) 1(49) X(49) FREEPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 9( 9) 12(21) 8(29) 6(35) 1(36) X(36) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 9(21) 4(25) X(25) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 46 13(59) 4(63) 1(64) 2(66) 1(67) X(67) MATAGORDA TX 50 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MATAGORDA TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 53 12(65) 2(67) 1(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) PORT O CONNOR 50 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 31 13(44) 3(47) 1(48) 4(52) X(52) X(52) ROCKPORT TX 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKPORT TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 9 7(16) 2(18) 2(20) 5(25) 1(26) X(26) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 29

2017-08-27 16:54:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 271453 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT TEXAS CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... AND FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 97.4W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 97.4W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 97.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.6N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.4N 96.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.2N 96.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.2N 96.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.3N 95.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 30.9N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 32.2N 95.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 97.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

2017-08-27 13:51:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HARVEY PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 the center of Harvey was located near 29.0, -97.6 with movement SSE at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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