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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 26A
2017-08-27 01:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 262339 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 700 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 97.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF VICTORIA TEXAS ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 060 DEGREES AT 2 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located by Doppler radar near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 97.4 West. Harvey has been drifting east-northeastward for the past few hours. Little additional motion is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. San Marcos Regional Airport recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40 inches in this area. Elsewhere during the same period, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the Texas Hill Country and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Sargent...4 to 7 ft Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...2 to 4 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Harvey Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2017-08-26 23:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 26 Aug 2017 21:49:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-08-26 23:25:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 26 Aug 2017 21:25:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-26 23:12:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Aug 2017 21:12:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Aug 2017 21:23:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 26
2017-08-26 22:37:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 262037 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Harvey has continued to weaken while located inland over Texas. Doppler radar data indicate that winds are now 55 kt, and since there are no surface observations near the center, this is the intensity used in this advisory. A continued weakening is anticipated, and the NHC forecast uses the trend provided by the SHIPS decay model. However, if a large portion of Harvey's circulation remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone could weaken at a slower rate than shown here. Harvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion is anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain light, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees in which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree that any motion will be quite slow. Key Messages: 1. While Harvey's winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast. 2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the middle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through Thursday. Please heed the advice of local officials and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to recede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 29.1N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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