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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2017-08-26 22:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 262036 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CAMERON LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) JASPER TX 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) HOUSTON TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16) AUSTIN TX 34 11 4(15) 2(17) 2(19) 3(22) 3(25) 1(26) AUSTIN TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 18 13(31) 2(33) 2(35) 2(37) 1(38) 1(39) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 12 4(16) 4(20) 4(24) 5(29) 2(31) 1(32) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 8 10(18) 10(28) 4(32) 4(36) 1(37) 1(38) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 1(15) MCALLEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) HARLINGEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-26 22:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BARELY MOVING... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 the center of Harvey was located near 29.1, -97.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 26
2017-08-26 22:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 262036 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BARELY MOVING... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 97.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF VICTORIA TEXAS ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located by Doppler radar near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 97.6 West. Harvey has been nearly stationary and little motion is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40 inches in this area. Elsewhere during the same period, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the Texas Hill Country and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Sargent...4 to 7 ft Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...2 to 4 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Harvey Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-08-26 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 26 Aug 2017 20:36:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 26
2017-08-26 22:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 262035 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 100SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 97.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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