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Hurricane Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2017-08-26 10:55:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 260855 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 1(11) CAMERON LA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 2(13) JASPER TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 1(12) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 2(16) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) 2(15) GALVESTON TX 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 6(23) 2(25) HOUSTON TX 34 12 4(16) 5(21) 4(25) 4(29) 4(33) 2(35) HOUSTON TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 19 22(41) 11(52) 3(55) 2(57) 1(58) 1(59) AUSTIN TX 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 35 22(57) 15(72) 3(75) 1(76) 2(78) X(78) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 2 9(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) 1(18) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FREEPORT TX 34 27 4(31) 5(36) 5(41) 4(45) 4(49) 1(50) FREEPORT TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 2( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 6(19) 5(24) 2(26) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 1(18) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 9 2(11) 3(14) 4(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 3 2( 5) 5(10) 7(17) 7(24) 3(27) 1(28) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 2(17) 2(19) HARLINGEN TX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 3(18) 1(19) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) LA PESCA MX 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory Number 24
2017-08-26 10:54:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 260854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 ...HARVEY MOVING SLOWLY INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 97.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF VICTORIA TEXAS ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning have been discontinued south of Baffin Bay. The Hurricane Warning north of Port O'Connor to Sargent has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to High Island Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Port O'Connor to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should already be complete. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 97.2 West. Harvey is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). Harvey is expected to slow down through the day and meander over southeastern Texas through the middle of next week. Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Harvey is likely to become a tropical storm later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). Almost 10 inches of rain have already been reported at a few locations in southeastern Texas. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...6 to 12 ft Port O'Connor to Sargent...6 to 9 ft Sargent to Jamaica Beach...4 to 6 ft Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...3 to 6 ft Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring inland from the coast within Harvey's eyewall, and hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are still possible near the middle Texas coast for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in other portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 24
2017-08-26 10:54:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 260854 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY. THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 97.2W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 97.2W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 97.1W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.0N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.7N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 28.3N 96.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 29.0N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 30.0N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 97.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-26 09:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY MOVING SLOWLY INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 the center of Harvey was located near 28.5, -97.2 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Summary for Hurricane Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-26 08:53:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...2 AM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE HARVEY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE... As of 2:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 the center of Harvey was located near 28.3, -97.1 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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