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Hurricane Harvey Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-08-26 05:01:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 26 Aug 2017 03:01:34 GMT
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Hurricane Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2017-08-26 05:00:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 260300 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 9(24) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 9(23) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 9(13) 10(23) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 13(18) 11(29) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 14(19) 11(30) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 8(15) 26(41) 12(53) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 10(24) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 8(17) FORT POLK LA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 13(22) 9(31) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 18(30) 12(42) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAMERON LA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 6(14) 21(35) 13(48) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) JASPER TX 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 15(27) 11(38) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 5(15) 19(34) 12(46) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 7(16) 21(37) 13(50) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 8 5(13) 4(17) 4(21) 12(33) 24(57) 9(66) GALVESTON TX 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 5( 7) 17(24) 11(35) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) HOUSTON TX 34 25 7(32) 4(36) 5(41) 8(49) 16(65) 6(71) HOUSTON TX 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 10(17) 8(25) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) AUSTIN TX 34 20 40(60) 7(67) 8(75) 2(77) 2(79) 1(80) AUSTIN TX 50 2 6( 8) 5(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) 2(20) AUSTIN TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 39 38(77) 6(83) 5(88) 1(89) 1(90) X(90) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 3 22(25) 9(34) 4(38) 1(39) 1(40) 1(41) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 1 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FREEPORT TX 34 61 3(64) 3(67) 4(71) 6(77) 8(85) 2(87) FREEPORT TX 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 7(13) 21(34) 9(43) FREEPORT TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 8(24) GFMX 280N 950W 34 8 5(13) 4(17) 6(23) 16(39) 26(65) 7(72) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 10(14) 29(43) 8(51) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 8(36) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 10(22) 25(47) 11(58) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 10(28) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 15 2(17) 2(19) 3(22) 10(32) 16(48) 6(54) MATAGORDA TX 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 13(24) 5(29) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 64 26 X(26) 2(28) 2(30) 8(38) 10(48) 4(52) ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 83 1(84) X(84) 1(85) 1(86) 2(88) 1(89) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 10 1(11) X(11) 6(17) 8(25) 7(32) 3(35) GFMX 270N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 4( 6) 16(22) 27(49) 8(57) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 21(33) 6(39) MCALLEN TX 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 19(35) 20(55) 5(60) MCALLEN TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 3(22) MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 8(17) 19(36) 23(59) 6(65) HARLINGEN TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 15(28) 4(32) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) 19(33) 23(56) 7(63) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 15(26) 4(30) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 13(20) 21(41) 6(47) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) LA PESCA MX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 10(19) 3(22) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory Number 23
2017-08-26 05:00:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 260300 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 ...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 97.0W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Sargent to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should already be complete. Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 97.0 West. Harvey has just made landfall on the Texas coast over the northern end of San Jose Island about 4 miles (6 km) east of Rockport. Harvey is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is expected to slow its forward motion and move slowly over southeastern Texas during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Harvey is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours while the center of Harvey is over southeastern Texas. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A Texas Coastal Ocean Observing Network station at Aransas Pass recently reported sustained winds of 111 mph (178 km/h) and a wind gust of 131 mph (211 km/h). The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...9 to 13 ft Port O'Connor to Sargent...6 to 9 ft N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Port Aransas...5 to 8 ft Sargent to Jamaica Beach...4 to 6 ft Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...3 to 5 ft Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring along the coast in the Port Aransas to Port O'Connor area and should spread over other portions of the hurricane warning area during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in other portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Saturday near the middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 23
2017-08-26 04:59:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 260259 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 97.0W AT 26/0300Z...ON COAST POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 97.0W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 96.8W...ON COAST FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.6N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.0N 97.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.7N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.0N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 28.5N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 29.5N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 97.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-26 03:57:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 the center of Harvey was located near 28.0, -97.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 938 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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