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Hurricane Harvey Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-08-25 22:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 25 Aug 2017 20:55:28 GMT
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Hurricane Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2017-08-25 22:55:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 252055 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 3(15) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 4(16) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 13(22) 6(28) 4(32) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 5(13) FORT POLK LA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 4(19) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 6(15) 5(20) 3(23) CAMERON LA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 9(18) 4(22) 4(26) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 6(16) 3(19) 4(23) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 10(23) 3(26) 5(31) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 11(23) 4(27) 5(32) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 18 8(26) 5(31) 6(37) 16(53) 4(57) 2(59) GALVESTON TX 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 7(11) 1(12) 2(14) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 29 15(44) 6(50) 7(57) 11(68) 1(69) 1(70) HOUSTON TX 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 2(13) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 10 52(62) 11(73) 8(81) 2(83) X(83) 1(84) AUSTIN TX 50 1 5( 6) 7(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) AUSTIN TX 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 24 56(80) 6(86) 5(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 1 18(19) 15(34) 6(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) FREEPORT TX 34 76 3(79) 3(82) 3(85) 6(91) 1(92) X(92) FREEPORT TX 50 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 11(20) 2(22) 1(23) FREEPORT TX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 16(22) 4(26) 1(27) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 1(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 4 6(10) 5(15) 4(19) 14(33) 5(38) 4(42) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 27 5(32) 3(35) 5(40) 13(53) 1(54) X(54) MATAGORDA TX 64 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 8(18) 2(20) X(20) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 89 2(91) 1(92) 2(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) PORT O CONNOR 64 43 3(46) 2(48) 3(51) 9(60) X(60) X(60) ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 50 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 64 88 2(90) X(90) X(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 74 3(77) 1(78) 1(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 22 5(27) 1(28) 3(31) 12(43) X(43) X(43) GFMX 270N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MCALLEN TX 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 9(21) 25(46) 1(47) 1(48) MCALLEN TX 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HARLINGEN TX 34 4 4( 8) 6(14) 9(23) 27(50) 1(51) 1(52) HARLINGEN TX 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 15(19) X(19) X(19) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 8(18) 26(44) 3(47) 1(48) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 20(29) 3(32) 2(34) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LA PESCA MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 7(12) 1(13) 1(14) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory Number 22
2017-08-25 22:54:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 252054 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 ...MAJOR HURRICANE HARVEY BEARING DOWN ON THE TEXAS COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 96.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Port Mansfield, Texas. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Port Mansfield, Texas. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch north of Boca de Catan. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Sargent to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should already be complete. Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located by aircraft reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 96.5 West. Harvey is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward speed is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Harvey is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before Harvey makes landfall overnight. Weakening is then expected over the weekend while the center moves inland over Texas. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A station at Aransas Pass, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind 56 mph and a gust to 71 mph. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft reconnaissance data is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...3 to 5 ft Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Saturday near the middle and upper Texas coast into far southwestern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 22
2017-08-25 22:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 252054 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD...TEXAS. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD...TEXAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF BOCA DE CATAN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 96.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 96.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.2N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.9N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.6N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.1N 96.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 96.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-25 22:00:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MAJOR HURRICANE HARVEY BEARING DOWN ON THE TEXAS COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 the center of Harvey was located near 27.5, -96.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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