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Hurricane Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2017-08-25 16:53:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 251453 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 5(16) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 5(18) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 4(18) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 13(25) 5(30) 5(35) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 5(13) FORT POLK LA 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 5(15) 2(17) 6(23) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 7(19) 4(23) 4(27) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CAMERON LA 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 9(22) 5(27) 5(32) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 7(20) 3(23) 4(27) KOUNTZE TX 34 3 5( 8) 8(16) 4(20) 11(31) 2(33) 4(37) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 5( 8) 6(14) 5(19) 11(30) 4(34) 4(38) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 16 18(34) 10(44) 4(48) 15(63) 2(65) 2(67) GALVESTON TX 50 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 1(17) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 11 33(44) 11(55) 5(60) 12(72) 1(73) 2(75) HOUSTON TX 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 1(16) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 3 45(48) 19(67) 5(72) 6(78) X(78) X(78) AUSTIN TX 50 X 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) AUSTIN TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 4 64(68) 13(81) 4(85) 5(90) X(90) X(90) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 1 9(10) 14(24) 6(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 64 13(77) 4(81) 2(83) 7(90) X(90) 1(91) FREEPORT TX 50 2 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 13(26) 1(27) 1(28) FREEPORT TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 7(10) X(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 950W 34 89 1(90) X(90) 2(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 280N 950W 50 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 17(27) 3(30) 1(31) GFMX 280N 950W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 4 11(15) 10(25) 4(29) 14(43) 3(46) 3(49) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 93 4(97) X(97) 1(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 11 21(32) 5(37) 3(40) 16(56) 1(57) X(57) MATAGORDA TX 64 1 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 11(22) 1(23) X(23) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 48 30(78) 3(81) 1(82) 6(88) X(88) X(88) PORT O CONNOR 64 10 27(37) 2(39) 1(40) 15(55) X(55) X(55) ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 50 81 17(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 64 42 44(86) 1(87) X(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 55 34(89) X(89) 1(90) 3(93) X(93) X(93) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 11 38(49) 3(52) X(52) 8(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 270N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 64 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MCALLEN TX 34 10 9(19) 7(26) 4(30) 21(51) 1(52) 1(53) MCALLEN TX 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HARLINGEN TX 34 33 7(40) 5(45) 2(47) 19(66) X(66) 1(67) HARLINGEN TX 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) HARLINGEN TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 22 5(27) 5(32) 4(36) 21(57) 1(58) 1(59) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 16(28) 4(32) 1(33) GFMX 250N 960W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LA PESCA MX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Harvey Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-08-25 16:52:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 25 Aug 2017 14:52:52 GMT
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Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory Number 21
2017-08-25 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 251452 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 ...OUTER RAINBAND FROM HARVEY SWIPING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 96.0W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch south of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Sargent to High Island Texas * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 96.0 West. Harvey is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward speed is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A buoy located about 40 miles east of South Padre Island recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: All last-minute preparations should be rushed to completion since tropical storm conditions are likely just beginning in portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas. Hurricane conditions are likely to begin within the hurricane warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible later today through Saturday near the middle and upper Texas coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 21
2017-08-25 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 251452 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 96.0W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 96.0W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 95.9W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.6N 96.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.4N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.9N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.3N 96.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 96.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-25 15:57:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OUTER RAINBAND FROM HARVEY SWIPING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 the center of Harvey was located near 26.7, -96.0 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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