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Tropical Storm RICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2015-11-19 15:44:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 191444 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 10(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Summary for Tropical Storm RICK (EP1/EP212015)

2015-11-19 15:43:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... ...FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY FRIDAY... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Nov 19 the center of RICK was located near 14.7, -105.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm RICK Public Advisory Number 5

2015-11-19 15:43:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 191443 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 900 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... ...FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 105.8W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 105.8 West. Rick is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west- northwest by Friday with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km), primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Advisory Number 5

2015-11-19 15:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 191442 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.2N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.7N 112.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.0N 113.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 105.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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