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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-08-29 22:43:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 134 WTPZ21 KNHC 292043 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 116.1W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 116.1W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.8N 117.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Norman Graphics
2018-08-29 16:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Aug 2018 14:37:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Aug 2018 14:37:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norman Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-29 16:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 154 WTPZ41 KNHC 291434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 The cloud pattern has continued to improved in organization, and SSMIS data at 1400 UTC indicate that an inner core is beginning to form. The area of convection is large with a well defined cyclonically curved band wrapping around the system, while the upper-level outflow is expanding westward. Based on objective and subjective T-numbers, the initial intensity has been set at 55 kt. The environment of low shear and warm waters is ideal for Norman to intensify, and in fact, the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are quite high. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Norman to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane in a day or so. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane is ready to start moving more westward or even on a west-southwestward track as the nose of the ridge to the north begins to expand westward and amplify. Most of the models captured the building of the ridge, and unanimously forecast the cyclone to move west-southwestward for the next 2 to 4 days. The confidence is the forecast during the first 3 to 4 days is high since track models are really clustered. The new NHC forecast is not too different from the previous one, and it lies between the corrected consensus HCCA and the multimodel aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 17.8N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 17.9N 119.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 17.5N 121.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-08-29 16:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 the center of Norman was located near 17.8, -115.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Norman Public Advisory Number 5
2018-08-29 16:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 617 WTPZ31 KNHC 291434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norman Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 ...NORMAN FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 115.7W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norman was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 115.7 West. Norman is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but a gradual turn to the west and west-southwest is anticipated during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Norman is expected to become a hurricane later today, and possibly a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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