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Summary for Tropical Storm Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-08-29 10:53:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Aug 29 the center of Norman was located near 17.5, -114.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Norman Public Advisory Number 4
2018-08-29 10:53:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018 453 WTPZ31 KNHC 290853 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norman Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018 ...NORMAN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 114.6W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norman was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 114.6 West. Norman is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A fairly steady westward or west-southwestward motion is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Norman is expected to become a hurricane later today, and possibly a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Norman Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-08-29 10:53:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 454 WTPZ21 KNHC 290853 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.8N 120.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.7N 124.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Norman Graphics
2018-08-29 04:37:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Aug 2018 02:37:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Aug 2018 03:34:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norman Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-29 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 548 WTPZ41 KNHC 290236 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 900 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 The tropical cyclone has become significantly better organized over the past several hours. A band of very cold-topped convection now spirals well over halfway around the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are up to 3.0, which corresponds to a current intensity of 45 kt. On this basis the system is being upgraded to a tropical storm, making Norman the fourteenth named tropical cyclone of this busy eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Since Norman will continue to move over warm waters and through an environment of low vertical shear and moist mid-level air, continued strengthening is likely. In fact, the various Rapid Intensification (RI) Indices show high probabilities of RI. Therefore the official forecast shows intensity changes of 30 and 35 kt per day from 0-24 hours and 24-48 hours respectively. This is also close to the simple intensity consensus but below the HFIP Corrected Consensus and the latest HWRF model run. The most recent geostationary and microwave satellite center fixes indicate that Norman is located a little south and southwest of the previous track, but the initial motion estimate remains about the same as before, 290/9 kt. The cyclone is moving along the southern periphery of a large mid-level ridge which is expanding westward. This should cause the system to turn toward the west very soon. Later in the period, the ridge builds a little to the southwest and this will likely cause Norman to turn toward the west-southwest. The official track forecast is a little south of the previous one, but close to the latest simple and corrected model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.5N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 17.9N 115.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 18.2N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 18.3N 118.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 18.1N 120.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 17.2N 124.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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