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Post-Tropical Cyclone MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 30
2014-08-29 10:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290832 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 132.5W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 132.5W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 132.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.7N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.4N 135.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 30.7N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.3N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 29.5N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 132.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm MARIE Graphics
2014-08-29 05:13:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 02:54:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 03:05:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 29
2014-08-29 04:53:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290253 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 Marie has only been producing patchy shallow convection for the past 12 hours or so, and the daily real-time global SST analysis shows that the center is approaching water as cold as 21C. Since deep convection should not redevelop in this environment, Marie is expected to become post-tropical overnight--if it isn't already. In the meantime, maximum winds are assumed to still be around 35 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass. The large circulation will take some time to spin down, and a gradually weakening remnant low is forecast through the 5-day period. The initial motion remains 310/14 kt, with Marie moving along the western edge of a low- to mid-level ridge located near the coast of California and the Baja California peninsula. Marie will slow down during the next day or so as it moves away from the ridge. Then, the low-level flow will steer the remnant low west-northwestward and eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period. The NHC track is very similar to the previous one and close to the TVCE model consensus. Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 27.0N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 28.2N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0000Z 29.4N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 30.3N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 30.8N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 30.8N 138.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 30.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z 30.0N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-29 04:53:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE ALMOST POST-TROPICAL... ...SWELLS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 the center of MARIE was located near 27.0, -131.5 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm MARIE Public Advisory Number 29
2014-08-29 04:53:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290252 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 ...MARIE ALMOST POST-TROPICAL... ...SWELLS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 131.5W ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.5 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THESE SWELLS...AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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