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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 27
2014-08-28 16:42:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281442 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 Marie has continued to produce a small area of convection south and east of the center for the past few hours, but the tops have been warming recently. The initial intensity is set at 40 kt, a bit above the latest satellite classifications. Deep convection should dissipate shortly now that Marie is moving over SSTs around 22C, and Marie should become post-tropical by tonight. Gradual weakening is expected during the forecast period, as it will take the large circulation some time to spin down even without convection. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. The initial motion estimate is 310/13. A general northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days while the cyclone remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the coast of southern California. Marie is forecast to slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one after adjustment for the initial position and motion. Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 25.4N 128.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 28.2N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0000Z 29.4N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 30.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 30.8N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 30.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z 30.0N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2014-08-28 16:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 281439 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 1500 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-28 16:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE GRADUALLY WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 the center of MARIE was located near 25.4, -128.9 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm MARIE Public Advisory Number 27
2014-08-28 16:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281439 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 ...MARIE GRADUALLY WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 128.9W ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.9 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY...AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY. LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THESE SWELLS...AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 27
2014-08-28 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281438 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 1500 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 128.9W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 180SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 128.9W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 128.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.2N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.4N 134.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 30.8N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 30.7N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 128.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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