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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 24

2014-08-27 22:33:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 272033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 2100 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 125.0W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 420SE 180SW 500NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 125.0W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 124.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.1N 127.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.8N 129.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.6N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.0N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 29.5N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane MARIE Graphics

2014-08-27 17:13:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 14:42:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 15:05:28 GMT

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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 23

2014-08-27 16:41:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271441 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 Convective cloud tops associated with Marie continue to warm and recent microwave imagery shows the inner-core convection becoming less organized. The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt, which is a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB and objective ADT CI numbers from UW-CIMSS. Marie will be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in continued weakening and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 36 hours. The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt. A west-northwestward motion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the northwest while the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. After the system becomes shallow, it is expected to turn westward and then west-southwestward in northeasterly low-level flow. The model guidance has trended toward a somewhat faster motion of Marie during the first few days of the forecast period. The NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly and is close to the model consensus. Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula and the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for another day or so and are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 22.3N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 23.3N 125.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 24.8N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 26.4N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 30.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z 30.0N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 29.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)

2014-08-27 16:40:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MARIE STEADILY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 the center of MARIE was located near 22.3, -123.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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