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Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-26 22:34:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LARGE SWELLS FROM MARIE NOW AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of MARIE was located near 21.1, -120.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 20
2014-08-26 22:34:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 262034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 ...LARGE SWELLS FROM MARIE NOW AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 120.3W ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO DECAY INTO A TROPICAL STORM TOMORROW. MARIE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THESE SWELLS...AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 20
2014-08-26 22:34:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 262034 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 120.3W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 15SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......210NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 570SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 120.3W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.9N 122.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.1N 124.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.3N 127.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.8N 129.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.9N 132.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.2N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 120.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane MARIE Graphics
2014-08-26 17:18:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 14:37:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 15:07:16 GMT
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-08-26 16:36:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261436 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 Microwave data show that Marie continues to have a complicated inner core structure, with an remnant inner eyewall surrounded by a pair of larger concentric eyewall rings. Dvorak estimates are still falling, so the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt. Steady-to-rapid weakening of Marie is expected with the cyclone now crossing the 26.5C isotherm into much colder waters. The intensity forecast is a blend of the previous NHC prediction, the intensity consensus and the Florida State Superensemble. Marie should become a non-convective post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days when it moves over waters colder than 23C, although there will likely still be gale-force winds for some time after the transition. The initial motion is 300/13 kt. Model guidance is in excellent agreement on a west-northwestward to northwestward motion during the next few days while the system remains steered by mid-level ridging to its northeast. Marie should slow and turn toward the north-northwest by day 4 due to it reaching the western periphery of the ridge. The remnants of the cyclone are then expected to drift westward after that time within an area of light steering. Only a small southwestward adjustment has been made to the official forecast at long range to come into better agreement with the consensus models. Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula, and will soon reach the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days, and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 20.7N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 21.6N 120.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 23.7N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 25.1N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 29/1200Z 28.1N 131.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 30/1200Z 30.5N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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