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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-08-26 10:38:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260838 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 Microwave images indicate that Marie still has a double eyewall structure, though the outer eyewall is open on the north side. The eye of the hurricane remains fairly distinct in satellite images, but deep convection is not as intense as it was earlier. The initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt, following the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. An ASCAT pass around 0500 UTC indicated that despite the weakening, the wind field of Marie remains very large. The hurricane is moving across a sharp sea surface temperature gradient, and it is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm later today. These cold waters, combined with a drier and more stable air mass, should cause Marie to continue weakening at a steady pace. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and shows Marie becoming a post-tropical cyclone by 72 hours when it is expected to be over water temperatures below 23 C. Marie is moving northwestward at 12 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same forward speed is forecast during the next few days while the system remains steered by mid-level ridging to its northeast. A slow down and turn toward the north-northwest is expected by the end of the forecast period when the weak system is steered by the lighter low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the south this cycle, toward the latest consensus aids. Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula, and will soon reach the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days, and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.9N 117.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 20.9N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 21.9N 121.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.9N 124.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 24.2N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 27.3N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 30/0600Z 29.9N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0600Z 30.5N 133.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2014-08-26 10:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260838 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-26 10:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS NEARING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of MARIE was located near 19.9, -117.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 18
2014-08-26 10:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260838 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 ...MARIE WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS NEARING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 117.8W ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THESE SWELLS...AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 18
2014-08-26 10:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260838 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.8W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......240NE 240SE 160SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..440NE 480SE 330SW 440NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.8W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.9N 119.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.9N 121.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.9N 124.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.2N 126.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.3N 130.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 29.9N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 30.5N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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