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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 17
2014-08-26 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260238 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 116.7W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT.......110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......240NE 270SE 160SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 480SE 330SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 116.7W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.2N 118.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 230SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.3N 120.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.4N 123.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.5N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.4N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 30.8N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 116.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane MARIE Graphics
2014-08-25 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 20:35:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 20:34:45 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-25 22:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 the center of MARIE was located near 18.4, -115.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 939 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 135 mph.
Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 16
2014-08-25 22:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 252035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 ...MARIE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 115.8W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN MARIE MOVES OVER COLDER WATER...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY...AND WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-08-25 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 Visible and microwave satellite images indicate that Marie still has concentric eyewalls, which are surrounded by another larger and almost closed ring of deep convection. Convective cloud tops have continued to gradually warm and become more asymmetric during the past few hours. As a result, Dvorak estimates have dropped, and the initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt based on a consensus of CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT. A steady decrease in the winds is forecast to continue in the short term, but the weakening rate should quicken after Marie moves over sub-26C waters in about 24 hours. As a result, the hurricane is now expected to weaken to a tropical storm in about 48 hours and become post-tropical by 96 hours. Marie will be over SSTs around 22 deg C in about 72 hours, so it is possible that it could become post-tropical sooner than indicated in the official forecast. The weakening trend shown in the current NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is in line with the SHIPS and LGEM models through 48 hours. Forecast intensities at the end of the period are based more on the global models, which should have a better handle on the system during its post-tropical phase. The initial motion remains 305/11 kt. Mid-level ridging will continue to steer Marie northwestward or west-northwestward through day 4. Once it becomes a remnant low on day 5, Marie is likely to turn northward and slow down. The track guidance has not changed on this forecast cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.4N 115.8W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.4N 117.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 21.7N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 22.7N 124.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 25.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 29.0N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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