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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 15
2014-08-25 16:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 251433 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 390SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.2N 120.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.2N 123.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane MARIE Graphics
2014-08-25 10:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 08:35:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 08:34:48 GMT
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-08-25 10:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250833 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 Marie has an impressive concentric eyewall structure in recent microwave images. The inner eyewall surrounds the 15 n mi diameter circular eye, and the outer one extends about 40 to 50 n mi from the center. In addition, a large curved band exists beyond the inner core and wraps across the southern portion of the circulation. The initial wind speed is set at 125 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. A pair of ASCAT passes around 0500 UTC confirmed the large wind field of Marie, with tropical storm force winds extending over 250 n mi away from the center. Intensity fluctuations are likely today due to the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. As mentioned in previous discussions, these internal dynamics are not predictable in terms of timing or how many occur. Regardless, Marie is expected to be a major hurricane for at least another 24 hours while it remains in an air mass of low shear and high moisture, and over 28-29 degrees Celsius water. After that time, however, Marie will be moving over much colder water and into a more stable atmosphere. These conditions should promote a steady or even rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. After the eye of the hurricane was wobbling around for much of the day yesterday, the cyclone seems to be on a smoother northwestward track now. The initial motion estimate is 300/10. A continued northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next 3 to 4 days while Marie remains steered by ridging to the north of the cyclone. A turn to the north-northwest is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the weakening system begins to move around the western periphery of the ridge. No significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the current track forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus, TVCE. Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.3N 113.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.3N 115.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 19.6N 117.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 20.9N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 22.0N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 24.7N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 27.8N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/0600Z 30.2N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-25 10:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CATEGORY 4 MARIE BRINGING LARGE SWELLS TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 the center of MARIE was located near 17.3, -113.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 932 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 14
2014-08-25 10:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 250833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 ...CATEGORY 4 MARIE BRINGING LARGE SWELLS TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 113.9W ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE TONIGHT. MARIE IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB...27.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY...AND WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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