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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-08-25 10:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 250833 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 113.9W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 390SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 113.9W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 113.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.3N 115.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.6N 117.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.9N 119.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.0N 121.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.7N 126.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 27.8N 130.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 30.2N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 113.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane MARIE Graphics
2014-08-25 04:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 02:34:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 02:35:45 GMT
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-08-25 04:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250235 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Marie has likely peaked in intensity. Deep convection in the hurricane's central dense overcast has warmed over the eastern semicircle and become less symmetric. The eye has also become cloud-filled in last-light visible satellite imagery, and has cooled some in infrared imagery. A 2332 UTC SSMI/S pass suggested that an eyewall replacement is underway, with a secondary eyewall noted at around 60 n mi radius at that time. The initial intensity is lowered to 130 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from 0000 UTC. The ongoing eyewall replacement could result in fluctuations of intensity in the short term for which there is little to no predictability. Regardless, Marie is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next day or two as it continues to move over relatively warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment. Even though the shear should remain quite low after that time, Marie will be traversing considerably cooler waters and ingesting drier and more stable air. These factors should result in a rapid spin-down of the cyclone late in the forecast period, and remnant low status is now indicated on day 4. Considering the current reduction in intensity, the NHC wind speed forecast is lower than the previous one and lies between the multi-model consensus and the SHIPS model output. After wobbling a bit toward the west or west-southwest earlier today, the eye of Marie has resumed a west-northwestward motion of 290/10. There have been no significant changes regarding the track forecast philosophy. Marie is expected to be steered on a west- northwestward to northwestward course during the next few days around the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge extending into the subtropical eastern Pacific. After becoming a remnant low late in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn north-northwestward and slow down. The latest track forecast is little to the right of the previous one, mostly as a result of Marie's discontinuous jog to the right earlier today. Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.6N 112.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.5N 114.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 21.4N 120.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 23.9N 125.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 27.0N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 30.0N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-25 04:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE MARIE RESUMES A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... ...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 the center of MARIE was located near 16.6, -112.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 927 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 13
2014-08-25 04:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 250234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 ...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE MARIE RESUMES A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... ...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 112.8W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST. MARIE AS RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE ON MONDAY. MARIE IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE TUESDAY. MARIE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 927 MB...27.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WILL THEN REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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