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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 13
2014-08-25 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 250233 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.8W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......270NE 240SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 390SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.8W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 114.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...280NE 260SE 170SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...280NE 260SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.4N 120.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.9N 125.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 30.0N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane MARIE Graphics
2014-08-24 22:33:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 20:33:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 20:31:49 GMT
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-08-24 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242031 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Marie has developed a fairly steady-state structure, with a solid area of white (in the Dvorak satellite enhancement) surrounding a 10 n mi wide eye. Dvorak final-T numbers have risen to T7.0/140 kt from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT, and that value is set as the initial intensity. This makes Marie the first category 5 hurricane in the eastern North Pacific basin since Hurricane Celia in 2010. Unless Marie can develop even colder cloud tops in the convection surrounding the eye, continued strengthening is probably not likely. The SHIPS model shows additional intensification for the next 12-18 hours, but much of the contribution comes from persistence and not the environment itself. Plus, a 1709 UTC AMSU pass indicates that a secondary eyewall is already forming, making it likely that an eyewall replacement will occur during the next day or so. Therefore, fluctuations in intensity are expected in the short term, but the NHC intensity forecast keeps Marie as a major hurricane through 48 hours. After that time, the hurricane will quickly move over colder water, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical storm between day 3 and 4, and then become post-tropical by day 5. This scenario is not really different from the previous forecast, except maybe showing a little faster weakening after 48 hours in line with the most recent SHIPS and LGEM guidance. Trochoidal motions appear to be influencing Marie's recent short term movement, but the hurricane's longer-term 12-hour motion is 270/12 kt. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and insists that Marie should resume a west-northwestward or even northwestward motion in the next 12-24 hours. That general trajectory should continue through day 4, with Marie turning north-northwestward by day 5 when it reaches the western edge of the subtropical ridge. As in the previous forecast, no significant changes to the NHC track forecast were required on this advisory. Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 16.0N 112.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.9N 115.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 19.5N 117.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 20.7N 119.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 26.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 29.5N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-24 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE NOW A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...SWELLS FROM MARIE EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 the center of MARIE was located near 16.0, -112.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 918 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.
Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 12
2014-08-24 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 242031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 ...MARIE NOW A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...SWELLS FROM MARIE EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 112.2W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. MARIE HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. MARIE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT MARIE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH TUESDAY. MARIE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WILL THEN REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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