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Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 11
2014-08-24 16:47:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 241447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 ...MIGHTY MARIE ON ITS WAY OUT TO SEA AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 111.4W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MARIE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE THROUGH TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...405 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929 MB...27.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 11
2014-08-24 16:47:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 241447 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 111.4W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......220NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 111.4W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N 112.9W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 220SE 170SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 190SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...260NE 250SE 210SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.3N 117.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 210SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 170SE 170SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 25.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N 131.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 111.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane MARIE Graphics
2014-08-24 11:19:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 08:42:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 09:07:21 GMT
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-08-24 10:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240841 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Marie continues to rapidly intensify. The eye of the hurricane has become much more distinct in recent satellite images, and very cold cloud tops surround the center. The inner core convective pattern is also quite symmetric, and a large curved band exists well to the south of the center. The initial wind speed estimate is 115 kt, a category 4 hurricane, which is based on a Dvorak classification of T6.0 from SAB. The large scale conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures should favor additional strengthening during the next day or so. However, it should be noted that with major hurricanes like Marie, intensity fluctuations are common due to internal dynamics, or eyewall replacement cycles, that are not easily forecast. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening in a couple of days when there will likely be some decrease in moisture and sea surface temperatures gradually lower. A more rapid weakening is predicted toward the end of the forecast period when Marie is forecast to move over water temperatures lower than 26 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, given the observed strengthening, but shows a similar trend. The intense hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwestern periphery of a deep layer ridge. The track forecast is fairly straight forward. A west-northwest to northwest motion is predicted during the next 5 days as ridging to the north of Marie remains the primary steering mechanism. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to the multi-model consensus. A partial ASCAT pass indicated that the wind field of Marie has expanded significantly, and the wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow. These swells, which are likely to cause dangerous life-threatening surf, are forecast to spread northward along the Baja California coast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 16.1N 109.9W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.3N 113.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.8N 116.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 22.4N 120.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 28.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-24 10:41:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES... ...NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 the center of MARIE was located near 16.1, -109.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 944 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 135 mph.
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