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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-08-23 22:46:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232046 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Marie's rapid intensification has slowed some this afternoon. Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting in association with the hurricane and a ragged eye is just now starting to make an appearance in the visible imagery. Dvorak CI numbers from ADT, SAB, and TAFB have not changed over the last six hours, but with an eye evident the intensity is increased slightly to 80 kt. Continued intensification is expected, but how much is fairly uncertain. The SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are likely to continue being very conducive for the next three days. However, the GFS-based vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about 15 kt of deep-layer shear now and for the next three days. The forecast intensity is close to the SHIPS statistical model through three days, which is higher than any of the other guidance. It is of note that the GFDL dynamical model barely maintains Marie as a hurricane for the next three days, though this is considered an unlikely scenario at this time. By days four and five, Marie should be passing over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere. The forecast intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN consensus. This official intensity prediction is slightly below that provided in the previous advisory from 48 hours onward. TRMM and SSMIS microwave imagery provided evidence of the developing eye feature and allowed for a more accurate determination of the initial position and motion. The current motion is west-northwest at 10 kt, about the same as previously. Marie is primarily being steered by a deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should continue being the main steering factor for the entire forecast period. The track guidance remains in very close agreement through day 5 and suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast track. The official track prediction at days four and five is shifted slightly westward compared to the previous advisory and is based upon the multi-model TVCN consensus technique. It is of note that small-sized Hurricane Karina is now expected by most models to be absorbed into the circulation of Marie in about four days. While this process will lead to the dissipation of Karina, it should have little effect on the larger-sized Marie. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.1N 107.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.6N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.1N 111.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 16.8N 113.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 17.8N 114.8W 115 KT 135 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 20.6N 118.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2014-08-23 22:46:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 232046 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 8(10) 8(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 52(79) 8(87) X(87) X(87) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 14(58) X(58) X(58) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 14(38) X(38) X(38) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-23 22:46:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE REMAINS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE OFF OF THE MEXICAN COAST... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 23 the center of MARIE was located near 15.1, -107.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 8
2014-08-23 22:46:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 232046 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 ...MARIE REMAINS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE OFF OF THE MEXICAN COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 107.6W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 8
2014-08-23 22:45:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 232045 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.6W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.6W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.6N 109.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.1N 111.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.8N 113.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.8N 114.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.6N 118.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 140SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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