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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 7
2014-08-23 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231445 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 1500 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 110.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N 111.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.3N 113.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.7N 117.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane MARIE Graphics
2014-08-23 10:42:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 08:41:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 08:40:47 GMT
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-08-23 10:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230838 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Marie continues to quickly strengthen. Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a few microwave passes show significant improvement of the inner core and outer rain band features. Embedded center cloud tops continue to cool and are now around -82 degrees C. The initial intensity is raised to 65 kt and is based on a compromise of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an objective ADT current intensity of 72 kt. The water is warm and the shear is low, and this ripe environment is expected to remain conducive for further significant strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS continues to show Marie intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48 hours and the SHIPS RI Index indicates that the chance of a 35 kt increase in winds during the next 24 hours is 4 times the sample mean. The intensity forecast follows the SHIPS through day 3, then sides with the IVCN consensus model as the cyclone traverses sub-26C sea surface temperatures. Marie continues toward the west-northwest and the initial motion is estimated to be 285/11, similar to the climatological mean for the eastern Pacific basin. Marie is forecast to move along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over the extreme eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. The official NHC forecast is close to the previous package and is hedged toward the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.0N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W 115 KT 135 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-23 10:38:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 23 the center of MARIE was located near 14.0, -105.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 6
2014-08-23 10:38:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230838 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 ...MARIE BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 105.7W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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