je.st
news
Tag: marie
Hurricane MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2014-08-23 10:38:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230838 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 54(78) 2(80) X(80) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 45(50) 1(51) X(51) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 1(32) X(32) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2014-08-23 10:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230837 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 280SE 220SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
marie
advisory
forecast
Tropical Storm MARIE Graphics
2014-08-23 05:19:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 02:43:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 03:07:15 GMT
Tags: graphics
marie
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-08-23 04:51:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230251 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Marie appears to be on the verge of intensifying rapidly. The cyclone is in the process of developing a central dense overcast, consisting of very cold-topped convection. Numerous outer bands are also present. The upper-level outflow over the storm is well established, suggesting an expanding warm core. Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, with UW-CIMSS ADT values around 4.0. A blend of these data are used to set the initial intensity to 60 kt. Marie continues on a steady west-northwestward course, with the initial motion estimated to be 285/13. A continued west- northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through 48 hours while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge extending west-southwestward from the eastern United States into the eastern Pacific. A bend in the track toward the northwest is anticipated after 72 hours as Marie reaches the western end of the aforementioned ridge. The track guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, and the track forecast is little changed from the previous one despite a slight shift in the guidance to the north this cycle. The stage is set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the next day or two, with global models forecasting a nearly ideal environment for strengthening. The SHIPS model output bolsters this idea, indicating a 54 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. The official forecast is at or above the upper end of the intensity guidance through 72 hours. Given the very favorable large-scale conditions, it is possible that the intensity forecast may not be strong enough in the short term. Then again, it cannot be ruled out that unpredictable internal dynamics such as eyewall replacement cycles could prevent Marie from realizing its full potential. By days 4 and 5, the passage of Marie over sharply lower sea surface temperatures should hasten weakening, even though the shear should be relatively low. The intensity forecast late in the period remains above the nearly all the guidance but is closest to SHIPS model output. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.7N 104.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.2N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.9N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.5N 110.1W 115 KT 135 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 18.4N 115.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 20.8N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 23.2N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
marie
storm
Tropical Storm MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-08-23 04:43:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230243 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 9(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 67(75) 6(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 6(51) 1(52) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 6(33) X(33) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Sites : [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] next »