je.st
news
Tag: marie
Summary for Tropical Storm MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-23 04:43:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 the center of MARIE was located near 13.7, -104.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
marie
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm MARIE Public Advisory Number 5
2014-08-23 04:43:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230243 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 ...MARIE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 104.8W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.39 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
public
marie
storm
Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 5
2014-08-23 04:42:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230242 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 104.8W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 104.8W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 104.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 106.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.9N 108.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 110.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N 115.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 119.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 23.2N 123.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 104.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
marie
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm MARIE Graphics
2014-08-22 23:19:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 20:32:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 21:07:19 GMT
Tags: graphics
marie
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-08-22 22:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222032 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Marie continues to intensify. Satellite images show a well- organized cloud pattern, with considerable deep convection and numerous rain bands surrounding the center. The current intensity estimate is set at 50 kt, which is based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, ADT values from UW/CIMSS, and data from a couple of recent ASCAT overpasses. The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters of almost 30 deg C and vertical shear is forecast to remain low throughout the period. Some of the intensity guidance is very aggressive in strengthening Marie. In particular the SHIPS model, which shows strengthening to Category 4 status in 48 hours, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index, which shows a 59 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in winds over the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance through 48 hours, and is a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS models thereafter. Marie continues its west-northwestward trek and the motion estimate is 285/12, which is close to the climatological mean for the basin. The track forecast and forecast reasoning are basically unchanged. Marie should move along the southern periphery of a mid- tropospheric ridge that is forecast to build westward from northern Mexico through the forecast period. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close to the model consensus. The forecast wind radii at days 2-3 have been increased, based on the global models, which depict a large hurricane by that time frame. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.4N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.8N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.9N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.8N 110.7W 115 KT 135 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 17.5N 114.0W 115 KT 135 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
marie
storm
Sites : [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] next »