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Summary for Tropical Storm MARIE (EP3/EP132014)

2014-08-22 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 the center of MARIE was located near 13.4, -103.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm MARIE Public Advisory Number 4

2014-08-22 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 222032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 ...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 103.5W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2014-08-22 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 222032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 20(34) 2(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 51(54) 23(77) 1(78) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 22(46) 1(47) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) X(29) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 4

2014-08-22 22:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 222031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.8N 105.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.9N 109.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.8N 110.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 103.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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