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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 19

2015-09-10 16:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101434 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 Linda remains void of any organized deep convection and the mid-level circulation is decoupling from the low-level vortex. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates and assuming some decay since last night's ASCAT passes. Gradual spin down of the circulation is forecast as it moves over cool waters during the next few days, and if deep convection does not return, Linda will likely become a remnant low later today. The initial motion estimate is 320/06. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is forecast during the next day or so with a decrease in forward speed as the shallow vortex is steered by the low-level flow. Before the cyclone dissipates in 3 to 4 days, a motion south of due west is possible. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and is close to the middle of the guidance envelope. Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells could continue for another day or so. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is spreading northward into portions of the southwestern U.S., which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 26.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.6N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1200Z 27.1N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 27.4N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 27.6N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z 27.5N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Summary for Tropical Storm LINDA (EP5/EP152015)

2015-09-10 16:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...WEAKENING LINDA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 the center of LINDA was located near 26.0, -118.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm LINDA Public Advisory Number 19

2015-09-10 16:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101433 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 ...WEAKENING LINDA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 118.6W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 118.6 West. Linda is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Linda is expected to become a remnant low later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to continue for another day or two and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2015-09-10 16:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 101432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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