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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-09-10 10:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100834 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 200 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 Linda continues to decay. Much of the deep convection has now dissipated, and the cyclone is weakening over cool water and within a stable air mass. A pair of ASCAT passes recently sampled the circulation of Linda and revealed that the winds and are near 40 kt. This is in agreement with an average of the Dvorak Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The scatterometer data also indicated that the size of the tropical storm force wind field has decreased considerably and is confined to an area within 60 n mi north of the center. Additional weakening is forecast since sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease even more along the projected path. Linda will likely become a tropical depression later today and a remnant low by tonight. Dissipation is forecast to occur in about 4 days, following the global model guidance. The weakening storm is moving northwestward at 8 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest and then west with a decrease in forward speed is predicted over the next few days as the cyclone is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one and is very near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells could continue for another day or so. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is spreading northward into portions of the southwestern U.S., which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 25.6N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 26.3N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 26.9N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 27.3N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 27.5N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z 27.6N 122.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2015-09-10 10:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100834 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm LINDA (EP5/EP152015)
2015-09-10 10:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LINDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 the center of LINDA was located near 25.6, -118.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm LINDA Public Advisory Number 18
2015-09-10 10:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100833 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 200 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 ...LINDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 118.2W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 118.2 West. Linda is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Linda is forecast to become a tropical depression later today and a remnant low by tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to continue for another day or two and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Advisory Number 18
2015-09-10 10:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100833 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 118.2W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 118.2W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.9N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.3N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.6N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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