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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Advisory Number 17
2015-09-10 05:17:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100317 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 117.7W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT.......40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 390SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 117.7W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.8N 118.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.6N 119.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.1N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.3N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.4N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 26.8N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm LINDA Graphics
2015-09-10 04:53:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2015 02:41:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2015 02:52:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-09-10 04:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100241 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 Linda's weakening trend continues. Most of the convection with cloud tops of -45 to -55 deg C has now been displaced primarily into the northern quadrant deep due to moderate southerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a consensus Dvorak CI-number of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 320/08 kt. The NHC model guidance remains in fairy good agreement on Linda moving northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west after that as the cyclone weakens into a shallow remnant low and is steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The official forecast track is essentially just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope near the consensus model, TCVE. A comparison of low-level positions from microwave imagery with the visible and infrared location of the upper-level circulation clearly indicates that the surface and upper-level circulations continue to decouple. Linda is currently crossing the 24 deg C SST isotherm and is headed for 23 C water, so additional weakening is forecast as convection continues to wane due to rapidly worsening thermodynamic conditions. The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression within the next 24 hours and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN intensity consensus model. Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula, and these swells are expected to reach southern California on Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 25.0N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 25.8N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 26.6N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 27.1N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 27.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z 27.4N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 26.8N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm LINDA (EP5/EP152015)
2015-09-10 04:41:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LINDA WEAKENS SOME MORE... ...FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 the center of LINDA was located near 25.0, -117.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2015-09-10 04:41:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100240 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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