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Tropical Storm LINDA Graphics

2015-09-09 22:53:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 20:46:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 20:52:20 GMT

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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 16

2015-09-09 22:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092044 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 Linda continues to weaken, with the remaining deep convection becoming displaced from the low-level center due to southerly shear. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Further weakening is forecast due to cool waters and a dry, stable air mass along the track of Linda. Linda is forecast to weaken to a depression by 24 hours and become a remnant low by 36 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is 325/09, and microwave imagery suggests that the surface center of Linda is a little behind previous estimates as it begins to separate from the convection. Linda is forecast to continue moving northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 24 to 36 hours. Then the remnant low of Linda should gradually turn westward and then southward in the low-level flow before dissipating in about 5 days. The new NHC track is along the previous one, but is a bit slower given the initial position and motion through 48 hours. After that time, a slower motion and faster southward turn is shown before dissipation, in agreement with the latest trends in the track guidance. Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula, and these swells are expected to reach southern California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 117.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 25.4N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 26.4N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 27.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 27.3N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 27.6N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z 27.0N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2015-09-09 22:43:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 092042 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Summary for Tropical Storm LINDA (EP5/EP152015)

2015-09-09 22:42:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...LINDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING FORECAST... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 the center of LINDA was located near 24.4, -117.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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