je.st
news
Tag: linda
Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-09-09 16:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091438 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 Deep convection continues to diminish in association with Linda, with only a small area of cold cloud tops near and west of the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Further rapid weakening is expected as Linda moves over cooler SSTs and into a dry, stable air mass. Linda should become a remnant low by 48 hours, or even a bit sooner. The initial motion estimate is 325/11. Linda should continue moving northwestward for the next 36 hours and then turn gradually more westward as the cyclone becomes a shallow system steered by the low-level flow. By the end of the period, a motion toward the southwest or south-southwest is possible. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one but has been adjusted a bit to the right and faster to account for the initial position and motion and the latest trends in the guidance. The NHC forecast is generally close to or a little to the right of the ECMWF through much of the forecast period. Large swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central portions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are expected to reach the Pacific coast of the northern Baja California peninsula today and reach southern California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 24.2N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 26.3N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 27.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 27.4N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 28.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 28.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 27.5N 124.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
linda
forecast
Summary for Hurricane LINDA (EP5/EP152015)
2015-09-09 16:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LINDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 the center of LINDA was located near 24.2, -116.9 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Tags: summary
linda
hurricane
ep5ep152015
Hurricane LINDA Public Advisory Number 15
2015-09-09 16:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091437 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 ...LINDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 116.9W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 116.9 West. Linda is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Linda is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today and become a remnant low Friday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the southern and central portions of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are expected to spread northward into southern California during the next couple of days and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from Linda will affect portions of the central and southern Baja California peninsula through today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
public
linda
advisory
Hurricane LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2015-09-09 16:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 091437 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Hurricane LINDA Forecast Advisory Number 15
2015-09-09 16:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 091436 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 116.9W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT.......30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT.......50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 116.9W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.4N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.0N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 116.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
linda
advisory
forecast
Sites : [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] [98] [99] next »