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Hurricane LINDA Graphics
2015-09-09 10:54:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 08:40:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 08:53:50 GMT
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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-09-09 10:39:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090839 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 Linda's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate overnight, with the eye becoming much less distinct and the surrounding cloud tops have warmed. The latest microwave imagery also shows that the northeastern portion of the eye has eroded. The initial wind speed has been lowered to 85 kt, which is based on a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Linda will be moving over SSTs below 26C and into a drier and more stable air mass today. This should result in rapid weakening and Linda is forecast to become a tropical storm within 24 hours, and weaken to a remnant low in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus. Linda is moving northwestward or 325/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue moving northwestward with some reduction in forward speed over the next couple of days. After that time, the more shallow cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward, and then westward in the low-level flow west of the Baja peninsula. The official track forecast lies between the GFS, which takes a stronger Linda more northward, and the ECMWF model that moves a weaker Linda more westward. Large swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central portions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are expected to spread northward into southern California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 23.2N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.2N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 25.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 26.3N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 26.9N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 27.5N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z 27.5N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-09-09 10:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 090839 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Hurricane LINDA (EP5/EP152015)
2015-09-09 10:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LINDA QUICKLY WEAKENING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 the center of LINDA was located near 23.2, -116.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane LINDA Public Advisory Number 14
2015-09-09 10:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 ...LINDA QUICKLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 116.3W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 116.3 West. Linda is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Linda is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Thursday, and become a remnant low by Friday morning. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the southern and central portions of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are expected to spread northward into southern California during the next couple of days and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from Linda will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula through this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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