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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-09-09 10:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090838 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 116.3W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT.......30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT.......50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..260NE 450SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 116.3W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 116.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 117.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT...30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT...50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.4N 118.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.3N 119.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.9N 120.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.5N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 27.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane LINDA Graphics
2015-09-09 04:54:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 02:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 02:53:53 GMT
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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-09-09 04:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090232 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2015 Cloud tops within Linda's CDO feature have warmed significantly since the previous advisory, likely due to the erosion of eyewall convection in the northern semicircle caused by the entrainment of dry mid-level air as noted in recent microwave satellite imagery. Although the 15 n mi diameter eye remains quite distinct, satellite intensity estimates have decreased sharply. The initial intensity of 100 kt is based on an average of Dvorak satellite T-numbers and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is now 325/11 kt. The track and forecast reasoning remain unchanged. The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Linda moving northwestward for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn to the west-northwest by 72 hours. After that time, the model tracks are widely divergent based on the intensity and resultant vertical depth of the cyclone on days 4 and 5. The ECMWF takes a weak remnant low due west, whereas the stronger GFS and HWRF models take Linda more poleward. The official forecast at 96 and 120 hours is a compromise of these extremes and lies close to the TCVE and GFEX consensus model tracks. Linda will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and over upper-ocean-heat- content (UOHC) values of near zero about 12 hours, while the hurricane is slowing down to less than 10 kt of forward speed. This should result in significant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone and induce a rapid weakening phase. As result, Linda is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Thursday morning, a depression by Thursday night, and a remnant low on Friday. The official intensity forecast follows the downward trend of the previous forecast and the IVCN intensity consensus model. Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. by day 2 and beyond, which could help trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 22.7N 115.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 23.7N 116.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 25.0N 117.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 26.1N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 26.9N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 27.6N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z 27.8N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 27.6N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane LINDA (EP5/EP152015)
2015-09-09 04:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CATEGORY 3 LINDA BEGINNING A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 8 the center of LINDA was located near 22.7, -115.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane LINDA Public Advisory Number 13
2015-09-09 04:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2015 ...CATEGORY 3 LINDA BEGINNING A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 115.6W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of major Hurricane Linda was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 115.6 West. Linda is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have weakened to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Linda is still a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Linda is forecast to become a tropical storm by Thursday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Brief heavy squalls with wind gusts to tropical storm force, especially over higher terrain and in mountainous areas, could occur in some of the outer rainbands moving onshore the southern Baja California peninsula tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are affecting the coast of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are expected to spread northward during the next couple of days and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from Linda will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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