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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 65
2018-10-12 16:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 121435 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 65 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 65
2018-10-12 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 121433 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 65 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MADEIRA ISLAND INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESLIE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 28.0W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 200SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 28.0W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 29.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.2N 23.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 90SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.4N 17.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 36.0N 12.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.3N 9.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.0N 4.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 28.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-12 13:50:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 11:50:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 11:41:03 GMT
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leslie
Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-12 13:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 8:00 AM AST Fri Oct 12 the center of Leslie was located near 32.3, -29.8 with movement ENE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 64A
2018-10-12 13:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 121139 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 64A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 800 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 ...LESLIE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 29.8W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF THE AZORES ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM W OF MADEIRA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Madeira Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 29.8 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). A continued east- northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Leslie is then forecast to slow down and turn toward the east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie could transition into a post-tropical low by Sunday or Sunday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island beginning early Saturday. RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 4 inches across Madeira Island through Sunday. This could lead to flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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