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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 35
2018-10-05 04:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 Leslie lacks an inner core and now consists of a vigorous large circulation with small outer bands of shallow to moderate convection. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to yield a lower intensity, and the winds have been reduced to 55 kt in this advisory based on a recent ASCAT pass. The shear does not appear to be a problem for Leslie, and the cyclone is forecast to be moving over SSTs which appear to not be cool enough to result in significant weakening. In fact, the average of the intensity guidance suggests that Leslie basically will be a 50-kt cyclone through the forecast period and so does the NHC forecast. Leslie is moving northward or 350 degrees at 10 kt steered by the southerly flow on the western edge of the subtropical ridge. In about 24 to 36 hours, the storm will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern will force Leslie to make a sharp turn to the east and even to the east-southeast with no change in forward speed. Track guidance is in extremely good agreement with this solution for the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the models vary significantly in speed, but since the cyclone will be embedded in the westerlies, the NHC forecast maintains the eastward progression of Leslie as indicated in the previous forecast. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 34.9N 57.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 36.2N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 37.2N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 37.5N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 37.5N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 36.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 34.5N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 33.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-05 04:31:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 4 the center of Leslie was located near 34.9, -57.6 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 35
2018-10-05 04:31:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050231 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 ...LESLIE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.9N 57.6W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 34.9 North, longitude 57.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday with a decrease in forward speed. Leslie should turn eastward or east-southeastward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days. Leslie is a large cyclone and the tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2018-10-05 04:31:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 050231 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 35
2018-10-05 04:31:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050231 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 57.6W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT.......110NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT.......250NE 200SE 180SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 57.6W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 57.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 36.2N 58.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT...250NE 180SE 160SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.2N 57.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 37.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 170SE 180SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 34.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 33.0N 42.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.9N 57.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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