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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 29
2018-10-03 16:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 263 WTNT23 KNHC 031432 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 56.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 150SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 540SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 56.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 56.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.0N 56.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.6N 56.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.9N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.6N 57.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 36.9N 56.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 170SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 37.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 36.7N 49.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 56.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-03 10:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Oct 2018 08:46:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Oct 2018 09:22:06 GMT
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 28
2018-10-03 10:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 404 WTNT43 KNHC 030845 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 Deep convection surrounding the center of Leslie has become better organized overnight, with the development of a ragged eye in infrared satellite images. A 0552 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a well-defined low-level eye with a ring of broken convection surrounding it. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB were 4.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt. This makes Leslie the sixth hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The hurricane is forecast to remain within favorable environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low vertical wind shear over the next day or two. These conditions should allow for some additional strengthening. After 48 hours, Leslie will be moving over cooler waters, which should induce gradual weakening later in the period. Leslie has become nearly stationary overnight, and it appears that the cyclone's equatorward motion has likely come to an end. A shortwave trough to the northwest of the storm and a building ridge to the east, are expected to allow Leslie to begin moving northward by tonight. A northward motion is then expected to continue over the next 2-3 days, but by the weekend Leslie is predicted to turn eastward as a broad trough dips southward over the north Atlantic. The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on this scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the next couple of days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 29.6N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 29.7N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 30.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 32.8N 57.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 35.0N 57.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 37.1N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 37.0N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 37.0N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2018-10-03 10:44:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 051 FONT13 KNHC 030844 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-03 10:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 3 the center of Leslie was located near 29.6, -56.9 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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