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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2018-10-01 16:31:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 480 FONT13 KNHC 011431 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

2018-10-01 16:31:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 1 the center of Leslie was located near 33.2, -54.3 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 21

2018-10-01 16:31:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 471 WTNT33 KNHC 011431 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 54.3W ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 54.3 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, portions of the coast of the southeastern United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 21

2018-10-01 16:30:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 104 WTNT23 KNHC 011430 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 54.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 300SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 54.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 54.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.7N 54.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.6N 55.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.7N 55.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.4N 56.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.5N 55.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 35.7N 54.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 37.4N 52.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 54.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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