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Summary for Remnants of FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-06 22:37:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED DISSIPATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 6 the center of FRED was located near 26.5, -42.5 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Remnants of FRED Public Advisory Number 32
2015-09-06 22:37:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 062037 TCPAT1 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 ...FRED DISSIPATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 42.5W ABOUT 1200 MI...1935 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ Satellite imagery indicates that Fred no longer has a well-defined center of circulation, and is no longer a tropical cyclone. At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 42.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue into Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to lose its identity over the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Remnants of FRED Forecast Advisory Number 32
2015-09-06 22:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 062037 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 42.5W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 42.5W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 43.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression FRED Graphics
2015-09-06 17:14:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2015 14:34:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2015 15:07:51 GMT
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Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Discussion Number 31
2015-09-06 16:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 061434 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 Fred continues to linger as a tropical depression. Visible satellite images indicate that the center of Fred remains well defined, but the outer circulation has become elongated likely due to the interaction with a frontal system to its northwest. Deep convection is disorganized, and consists of two patches to the north and south of the center. The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Fred is currently battling about 20 kt of north-northwesterly shear and is in an environment of fairly dry mid-level air. The shear is expected to lessen some during the next day or so before it increases again from the west in 48-72 hours, at which time the cyclone will begin to move over slightly lower SSTs. Therefore, a little strengthening is possible during the next day or two before the environment becomes more hostile. The NHC intensity forecast lies on the low side of the guidance, and is similar to the previous one. The depression is moving northward, or 005 degrees, at about 8 kt. A deep-layer trough to the northwest of the system should cause Fred to turn northeastward and increase its forward speed during the next day or two. After that time, the trough is expected to flatten, and that should allow Fred to turn eastward and then southeastward by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. It should be noted that an alternate scenario, provided by the ECMWF model, is that circulation of Fred could open up into a trough when it interacts with the nearby frontal system during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 25.7N 43.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 27.0N 42.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 28.8N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 30.2N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 31.4N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 32.8N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 32.9N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 31.5N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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