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Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Advisory Number 29
2015-09-06 04:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 060242 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 43.1W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 43.1W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 42.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.8N 43.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.4N 42.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N 39.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.0N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 32.5N 33.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 31.5N 31.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 43.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression FRED Graphics
2015-09-05 23:13:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 20:33:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 21:07:49 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-05 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED WEAKENS BUT STILL FIGHTING THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 5 the center of FRED was located near 23.8, -42.5 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
2015-09-05 17:14:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 14:46:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 15:07:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 27
2015-09-05 16:44:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 051444 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 Fred has been decapitated again by strong westerly wind shear. However, the low-level circulation continues to be vigorous. The initial intensity remains at 35 kt, based on satellite estimates and continuity. I will not speculate any more about the convection redeveloping or not. The NHC forecast calls for little change in intensity during the next 36 hours. If resilient Fred survives the next day or so, there is a chance of slight re-intensification as indicated by the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance. Fred is about to reach a break in the subtropical ridge where the steering currents are weaker, and is now moving toward the west- northwest at about 7 kt. A turn to the northwest and north should begin later today, and by Sunday night, Fred should recurve as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast follows the trend of all the models, but is closer to the GFS and the ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 23.4N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 23.9N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 25.5N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 27.5N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 29.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 31.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 33.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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