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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2015-09-05 16:44:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 051443 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)

2015-09-05 16:43:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FRED REFUSES TO WEAKEN... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 5 the center of FRED was located near 23.4, -41.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 27

2015-09-05 16:43:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051443 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 ...FRED REFUSES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 41.8W ABOUT 1335 MI...2145 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 41.8 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the north and then to the northeast is expected during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the weekend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 27

2015-09-05 16:43:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 051443 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 41.8W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 41.8W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 41.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 42.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.5N 43.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 33.0N 32.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 41.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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