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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 26
2015-09-05 10:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 050834 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 Fred continues to produce bursts of convection, although the bursts are smaller and farther from the center than they were 24 hours ago. This suggests that the ongoing 35-40 kt of westerly vertical shear is causing a gradual weakening. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, as well as objective AMSU and satellite consensus estimates from CIMSS and CIRA. The central pressure has been lowered a little based on additional observations from drifting buoy 13519, which reported a minimum pressure of 1008.4 mb as the center of Fred passed to the north. The initial motion is 290/10. Fred is approaching a large break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough and associated surface low centered several hundred miles east of Bermuda. The track guidance is in good agreement that this baroclinic system will move eastward for the next several days, with Fred recurving to the northeast between it and the subtropical ridge. After recurvature, there is some spread in the forecast forward speed, with the new track compromising between the faster ECMWF/GFS models and the slower UKMET/Canadian models. The new track is nudged slightly to the north of the previous track from 36-96 hours, and then is nudged a little to the east of the previous track at 120 hours. The intensity forecast is low in confidence due to several possible scenarios. First, although it is not explicitly forecast, Fred could become a remnant low at any time during the next 24 to 36 hours due to continued shear and dry air entrainment, followed by regeneration to a tropical cyclone when the shear subsequently decreases. Second, the dynamical models have two scenarios for Fred as it interacts with the above-mentioned trough and surface low after recurvature. One possibility, supported by the GFS and the ECMWF, is that a relatively weak Fred gets absorbed into the baroclinic low and dissipates earlier than currently forecast. Another possibility, supported by the UKMET and Canadian models, is that Fred stays farther away from the baroclinic low and intensifies more than is currently forecast. Given the uncertainty, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for slight weakening early in the forecast period followed by slight intensification after 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 23.2N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 23.7N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 24.7N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 26.3N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 28.2N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 31.5N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 35.0N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 36.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-05 10:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED STILL A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 5 the center of FRED was located near 23.2, -41.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 26
2015-09-05 10:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 050833 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 ...FRED STILL A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 41.0W ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 41.0 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are forecast by tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2015-09-05 10:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 050833 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 26
2015-09-05 10:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 050833 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 41.0W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 41.0W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 40.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.7N 42.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.7N 42.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.3N 42.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.2N 41.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 31.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 35.0N 33.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 36.5N 30.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 41.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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