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Tropical Depression FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2015-09-04 16:46:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 041446 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Depression FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-04 16:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 4 the center of FRED was located near 22.3, -38.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Advisory Number 23
2015-09-04 16:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 041445 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 38.3W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 38.3W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 37.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.6N 39.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 30.5N 36.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 34.0N 31.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 38.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
2015-09-04 11:14:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 08:45:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 09:07:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-09-04 10:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 040844 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015 Fred continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and east of the center despite being affected by at least 30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 30 and 45 kt, and based on these data the initial intensity remains 35 kt. Fred has continued to turn a little to the left and the initial motion is now 275/9. The cyclone or its remnants is expected to recurve between the subtropical ridge to the east and a deep-layer trough to the west during the forecast period. While the track guidance agrees with this scenario, there remain some difference in the speed after recurvature between the slower GFS and the faster ECMWF and UKMET. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track with a small nudge to the east after 72 hours, and it splits the difference between the faster and slower track guidance mentioned above. It may sound like a broken record, but Fred is expected to remain in an environment of strong shear and dry air for the next 36-48 hours. This should cause the system the degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. The dynamical models suggests that the shear should decrease after 48 hours, although there is poor agreement between them as to what the upper-level wind pattern will be near Fred. The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models forecast Fred or its remnants to intensify during that time, while the ECMWF and NAVGEM models show little intensification. Based on these forecasts and the statistical guidance, the intensity forecast calls for Fred to regain tropical cyclone status at around 96 hours, albeit with a considerable amount of uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 22.1N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 22.3N 38.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 22.6N 40.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 23.2N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 24.1N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 27.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 29.5N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H 09/0600Z 32.0N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Beven
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