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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 20
2015-09-03 22:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 032031 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 35.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 35.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 34.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.4N 36.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.7N 38.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.0N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 35.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
2015-09-03 16:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 14:35:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 14:50:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-09-03 16:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031434 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015 As anticipated, a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed most of the convection from Fred overnight, and again the cyclone consists of a very vigorous swirl of low clouds. Just like yesterday, a few new convective cells are redeveloping to the north of the center. Assuming that the winds are gradually decaying, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The strong upper-level winds affecting Fred are forecast to continue creating a very hostile environment for the cyclone. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in about 12 to 24 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not dissipated, models are showing less shear. This combined with the presence of anomalous warm waters in the North Atlantic, will provide a small opportunity for Fred to redevelop some as indicated in the NHC forecast. A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic is steering Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt. In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on the southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward the northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will then recurve toward the northeast around the ridge. Although most of the track models provided this solution, the NHC forecast is very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 21.5N 34.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 21.9N 35.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 22.3N 37.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 22.6N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 23.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 27.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z 30.5N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2015-09-03 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 031433 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-03 16:33:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED HANGING IN THERE BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN.... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 3 the center of FRED was located near 21.5, -34.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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