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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 19
2015-09-03 16:33:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 031433 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015 ...FRED HANGING IN THERE BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN.... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 34.1W ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 34.1 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is encountering strong upper-level winds, so weakening is forecast, and the cyclone is likely to become a post-tropical low by tonight or Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 19
2015-09-03 16:33:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 031433 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.1W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.1W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 33.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.9N 35.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.3N 37.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.6N 38.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.0N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 27.5N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 30.5N 38.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 34.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
2015-09-03 10:51:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 08:46:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 08:50:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-09-03 10:46:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030846 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015 Fred has made a slight resurgence since the previous advisory with the development of a large cluster of deep convection in the northeastern quadrant, including a narrow band of cloud tops colder than -80C having persisted very near the partly exposed low-level center. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, and T2.5/35 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion estimate has slowed slightly to 295/07 kt. Otherwise, there remains no change to the forecast track or reasonings mentioned in previous advisory discussions. A shortwave trough currently moving off of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast is forecast by the global and regional models to dig east-southeastward into the central Atlantic during the next 5 days, and gradually erode the western portion of the Bermuda-Azores ridge. This will allow Fred to slowly turn northwestward in 48-72 hours, and turn northward at 96 and 120 hours. The NHC guidance is in much better agreement on this developing scenario compared to 24 hours ago. The new official forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus models. The GFS and ECMWF models are indicating that more than 30 kt of westerly deep-layer vertical wind shear is affecting Fred. However, this has not kept deep convection from redeveloping near the center, at least for the time being. These strong shear conditions are forecast to persist and even increase during the next 48 hours and, when combined with increasingly drier mid-level air, should induce gradual weakening within the next 12 hours or so. Fred is forecast to weaken to a depression by late tonight or Friday morning, and degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night. By 72 hours and beyond, the remnant low is forecast to reach a more favorable environment of warmer sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear, and increasing moisture, which suggest that there is at least a low probability that regeneration could occur. As a result, the official intensity forecast continues to show a remnant low through 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.8N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 21.4N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.9N 36.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 22.2N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 22.6N 39.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 24.0N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 26.5N 41.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z 28.8N 40.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-03 10:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED RESTRENGTHENS A LITTLE... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 3 the center of FRED was located near 20.8, -33.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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